What Are the Next Big Opportunities in Commerce Media?

Commerce Media’s Next Chapter

Commerce media has moved from experiment to economic engine. According to WARC Media the category is on pace to surpass combined linear and CTV ad spend by 2026, a milestone that reflects not just scale, but influence.

But scale also brings scrutiny. The days of “if you build it, brands will spend” are over. 

What began as retail media, dominated by early movers like Walmart and Target, has expanded far beyond traditional storefronts. Airlines, grocers, ticketing platforms, marketplaces, FinTech leaders, and payment ecosystems are building monetization layers on top of high-intent consumer activity.

This expansion defines the shift from retail media to commerce media: an ecosystem built around where people actually transact and where real-time relevance drives outcome-level impact. 

Commerce media must now prove incremental value, deliver closed-loop attribution, and protect customer experience at every touchpoint.

Below are the three trends reshaping the category and what they unlock for brands and retailers.

Trend #1: Non-endemic demand becomes the growth engine 

The strongest signal in digital marketing isn’t a search term. It’s what a customer is actively buying right now. That’s why real commerce media growth is coming from non-endemic opportunities;  brands outside a retailer’s primary categories whose products, services, or offers naturally complement what the customer is already buying. 

These brands often align naturally with the needs implied by a purchase. A customer buying travel gear may be preparing for a vacation and be open to luggage or destination essentials. Someone upgrading home electronics might be mid-move and considering connectivity tools. A shopper buying baby products may also be evaluating household services or wellness items.

The opportunity isn’t to interrupt the purchase path; it’s to meet customers with relevance that reflects what they’re already doing. These brands are seeking what the open web has lost: real-time, purchase-level intent. And as retailers extend their first-party audiences into premium off-site channels like CTV and social, they can give non-endemic brands access to this intent without adding friction to onsite product sales or compromising the customer experience.

Where the opportunity becomes operational

To act on this demand, retailers need curated, controlled ways to introduce third-party products and offers, not open marketplaces that overwhelm customers. The goal is to surface only brands and items that genuinely complement a shopper’s buying experience. 

Many retailers are moving toward selective product marketplaces that let them control which non-endemic brands participate and where their offers appear. Rokt Catalog is one example: it allows retailers to onboard only the third-party products they trust and surface them in the moments where purchase signals indicate true relevance, strengthening the experience while unlocking incremental revenue.

Trend #2: The Transaction Moment becomes prime real estate in an agentic AI world

Agentic AI is reshaping the shopping journey. AI agents are becoming increasingly capable in research, comparison, and suggestion, narrowing the time customers spend exploring options.

But one part of the journey remains human-led as of today: the moment of commitment — from final selection to confirmation.

This window, the Transaction Moment, is becoming even more valuable as agentic systems take on more of the pre-checkout work.

Agentic AI concentrates human attention at checkout 

What was once hours of browsing becomes a focused decision moment. In this window:

• Intent is unambiguous, as the customer has decided.
• Attention is highest, and the buyer is focused.
• Relevance feels additive when the content  aligns with what the customer just bought.
• Outcomes are measurable, making it one of the cleanest attribution points in commerce.
• The environment is brand-safe without clutter, competition, and noise.

This isn’t new real estate; it’s newly valuable real estate. Customers have always checked out. What’s changing is that checkout is becoming the only point in the journey where human attention is guaranteed.

A strategic moment that’s beginning to matter more

As agentic AI reshapes the top of the funnel, brands and retailers are rediscovering an overlooked but high-value frontier: the Transaction Moment. This once-functional step in the buyer journey is now one of the most powerful environments for achieving true relevance and incremental revenue.

Forward-thinking retailers are already reaping the benefits. By using checkout placements with intention, many are realizing meaningful economic impact—some driving up to $500K in incremental profit per 1M transactions through Rokt Thanks alone. But the unlock doesn’t end on the confirmation page. The payments layer is becoming a profit engine with Rokt Pay+, while Rokt Catalog surfaces curated third-party products in Aftersell placements that generate new revenue without adding operational complexity.

What’s emerging isn’t a moment in isolation; it’s a redefinition of the entire Transaction Moment as a strategic, revenue-generating channel—one that extends across checkout, payment, and post-purchase experiences.

Trend #3: Commerce media becomes fully omnichannel

In 2026, commerce media is becoming an omnichannel system powered by first-party data, extending across:

• Connected TV and streaming, where intent-rich audiences drive outcome-level impact
• In-store screens and kiosks, bringing digital precision into physical retail
• Shoppable video and mobile ecosystems, merging discovery and purchase
• Audience extension tools, connecting retailer data to high-value off-site inventory

The through-line is not the channel; it’s closed-loop performance that ties exposure to verified spend.

This is where retail media and commerce media diverge: Retail media began as onsite placements. Commerce media is now a multi-format, multi-channel ecosystem tied together by first-party data and measurable outcomes.

What This Means for Brands in 2026

1. What is driving the next phase of commerce media growth?

Growth is being driven by non-endemic demand; brands outside a retailer’s primary categories that benefit from reaching high-intent shoppers with complementary products, offers, and services. Retailers that can safely activate these partners at scale, with strong controls and relevance, are capturing significant new revenue.

2. Why does the Transaction Moment matter more in an agentic AI world?

As agentic AI accelerates research and comparison, customers spend less time browsing and more time making decisions quickly. The moment from final selection to confirmation remains human-led, creating a rare window where attention is concentrated, intent is clear, and relevance feels helpful.

Retailers who use this moment thoughtfully can unlock meaningful incremental value without disrupting the purchase experience, a core principle behind Rokt’s approach to checkout relevancy.

3. How is commerce media expanding beyond the browser?

Commerce media is becoming fully omnichannel. Retailers are extending their first-party data into environments like CTV, in-store screens, shoppable video, and mobile — creating closed-loop systems that tie exposure directly to verified spend.

This shift rewards platforms that prioritize measurement, relevance, and consumer experience, areas where Rokt’s framework strongly resonates

4. What capabilities will define commerce media leaders in 2026?

Brands and retailers that win will excel at four things:

• Activating non-endemic demand with privacy-safe, data-led monetization
• Maximizing the checkout window with relevance at the Transaction Moment
• Extending first-party audiences across channels with closed-loop attribution
• Preparing for agentic AI by focusing on the moments that remain human-led

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