As Laura Cosgrove shares in Total Retail, holiday 2025 will be a high-stakes moment for retailers navigating slower growth, sharper consumer caution, and rising competition. But within the constraints lies a strategic unlock: the chance to turn existing traffic into real business value.
While Deloitte forecasts just 3% growth in overall holiday sales, ecommerce is expected to grow up to 9%. Retailers who activate their first-party data and commerce media channels can maximize the value of every visit, every interaction, and every Transaction Moment™.
Shoppers are showing up, but they’re spending less. Gen Z is leading the retreat, expected to reduce their holiday spend by over 20%. For retailers, this means high traffic doesn’t guarantee high returns. In this environment, sheer volume can’t carry Q4. Every moment must convert.
The Transaction Moment still holds the most power
At Rokt, we define the Transaction Moment as the high-intent stretch from cart to confirmation. It’s where customers are most engaged, and their attention holds the greatest value.
Retailers who understand the power of this moment are enhancing their checkout flows, not just to close the sale, but to deliver relevant upsells, exclusive offers, and brand experiences that add value without adding friction.
Rokt helps ecommerce businesses unlock this moment by placing the right offer in front of the right customer at exactly the right time. This moment isn’t an afterthought. It’s our specialty.
The new growth lever: commerce media + first-party data
Traditional digital ads try to catch attention. Commerce media wins by meeting intent. By embedding curated content (offers, ads, and products) into checkout and post-purchase flows, retailers are turning attention into performance. But the true unlock happens when that content is powered by first-party data.
Every customer click, scroll, and purchase provides behavioral signals. When activated in real time, this data powers dynamic segmentation, smarter recommendations, and contextual offers that feel like a natural extension of the shopping journey.
Rokt’s AI Brain learns from billions of Transaction Moments to drive real-time relevance. Whether it’s adjusting creative based on cart value or dynamically prioritizing offers by vertical, our platform helps retailers move fast without manual lift.
Optimize for trust and performance
Holiday pressure makes it tempting to monetize aggressively. But misaligned offers break trust, and trust is hard to rebuild.
Retailers should treat the Transaction Moment as a loyalty lever, not just a conversion one. That means:
- Prioritizing contextual relevance over high-CPM inventory
- Using first-party data to deliver smarter offers dynamically
- Capturing opt-ins and behavioral insights to enrich post-holiday segmentation
- Planning for how Q4-acquired data will drive Q1-Q4 2026
Holiday growth is only the beginning
Peak season is a performance moment. But it’s also a test of infrastructure. Retailers that lean into commerce media and data activation now will:
- Build more resilient growth models
- Reduce CAC dependency
- Strengthen customer lifetime value
As commerce media matures into a $100B+ category, the strategies retailers deploy this holiday season will define their competitive edge heading into 2026. Retailers who optimize their Transaction Moments today are setting the foundation for year-round relevance, retention, and revenue.
Rokt partners with leading ecommerce businesses, from grocery to travel to big box retail, to unlock billions in incremental revenue through real-time relevance. Our platform works seamlessly across checkout, confirmation, and beyond.
Make relevance your competitive edge this season
